A probabilistic model to predict building occupants’ diversity towards their interactions with the building envelope

Based on observations conducted in an office building, we apply advanced statistical analysis methods, leading to the formulation of stochastic models for the prediction of buildings occupants’ actions on window openings and shading devices.  The statistical analysis method – based on generalised linear mixed models – enables a correct treatment of the longitudinal nature of the datasets, an accurate estimation of the calibration parameters’ uncertainty and a detailed study of the differences between the occupants surveyed. This analysis results in the formulation of stochastic models for the prediction of occupants’ interactions with the key elements of the building envelope, which include explicit in-built probabilistic terms to account for occupants’ diversity if required. Furthermore, we show that the properties of these probabilistic terms can be used to infer a statistical distribution of the model’s calibration parameters, which comprehensively represent the diversity of observed behaviours between building occupants, and can be applied to simulate their behavioural properties.