Study on simulation modelling strategy for predicting thermal energy demand profiles of residential complex

In a metropolis such as Seoul, which has a large population in a dense, built-up area, district heating/cooling systems are popular in terms of energy efficiency and carbon reduction. In order to optimise the generation and distribution of energy in district heating/cooling systems, it is crucial to predict accurate energy demand profiles. In the case of a residential complex, identifying hourly demand profiles is a challenge for the energy managers since there can be a variety of buildings, which are affected by a number of variables: location, orientation and configuration. Detailed building simulation techniques can be adopted for the prediction of individual building energy load patterns. However, there are practical issues to consider – modelling large complexes requires time to develop sophisticated models to collect sufficient data to produce accurate results. This paper presents a preliminary study on how accuracy is affected when the complexity of the simulation is reduced, and whether a sufficient analysis of demand profiles can be conducted using a simplified model. The effect of model resolution is more evident in winter, the effect of building orientation is clearer in summer, and the effect of shade from adjacent buildings is greater in winter.