Renato Lepore, Eric Dumont, Christine Renotte, Marc Frere
Bibliographic info:
Building Simulation, 2015, Hyderabad, India

In previous studies, the authors combined load shifting and Model-based Predictive Control (MPC) for the optimization of a HVAC system. The precision of the predicted model outputs (primary energy, comfort in temperature and peak heat flow rate) depends on the accuracy of several factors (model parameters, inputs and initial state). Here, in order to allocate properly the development effort (parameter identification, forecast strategy, state measurement/estimation algorithm), the authors aim at ranking these factors by using global sensitivity analysis, precisely the elementary effect method. The simulation results summarize very satisfactorily the direct and indirect effects of around 30 model factors.