A framework for comparative analysis of belgrade housing stock – determinants of carbon reduction strategy

Approximately 33% of total annual energy consumption and carbon emission in Belgrade (Serbia) are related to the housing sector. As such, the housing sector represents a key determinant in the development of an overall national carbon reduction strategy. The development of an effective carbon reduction strategy increasingly requires use and development of detailed predictive tools. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to review the state of the art bottomup housing stock models, and briefly comment on the use of various building simulation tools in building stock modelling focusing on the housing sector, (b) to provide a conceptual algorithm for the disaggregated physically based bottomup energy and carbon emission modelling of the housing stock in Belgrade. The suggested algorithm has been constructed around three separate components which will be created and analysed during the course of this project: a) a data module which contains information on various energy related characteristics of Belgrade’s housing stock, such as urban layout, building envelope and building services; b) a data module based on a comprehensive monitoring campaign of selected dwellings in Belgrade, and c) a data module based on comprehensive modelling scenarios which will be carried out using a whole building zonal model such as ‘Energy Plus’. The suggested algorithm has been designed having in mind that the results of the modelling have to be easily translated into an easy to implement carbon reduction policy.