Estimation of heating energy use of existing houses in a future climate: 2050 vs 2007

This paper presents a method for the estimation of potential impact of climate change on the heating energy use of existing houses. The proposed method uses the house energy signature, which is developed from the current heating energy use extracted from the utility bills (e.g., for year 2007) and corresponding climatic conditions. The energy signature, which is an energy-related characteristic of the house, is used along with the outdoor air temperature predicted for 2040-2069 to forecast the heating energy use. The potential impact of climate change is estimated as the percentage of variation of heating energy use in the future compared with the current situation.