Empirical validation of three thermal simulation programs using data from a passive solar building

There is a continuing need to validate detailed thermal simulation programs of buildings. One way of doing this is to compare program predictions with measured building performance data. This is known as empirical validation. Data from the US National Institute of Standards and Technology passive solar test facility in Gaithersburg, MD, were used to assess predictions of ESP, HTB2 and SERI-RES. The results are tested for significance by means of Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. A way of improving the power of empirical validation using side-by-side comparisons is suggested. The work provides benchmarks for testing other thermal simulation programs.