Assessing uncertainty in building simulation

The premise underlying this work is that introducing uncertainty considerations into simulation will facilitate risk assessment and that this, in turn, will help to improve designer confidence in simulation. Sources of uncertainty abound in building simulation and must be factored into the solution process. These sources have been identified and useful techniques for quantifying the effects of uncertainties are presented. Two approaches are described: the use of traditional statistical methods, and the use of alternative arithmetical methods. The theory behind these methods and implementation of appropriate methods into an existing simulation program is described. Uncertainty analysis, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis.